Temporary Recovery: What Is Happening to the Caspian Sea
The Caspian Sea shoreline near Aktau has begun returning to its former contour this spring. However, the long-term trend of the sea’s shrinking water levels has not yet been reversed. What future do scientists predict for the world's largest inland body of water, and how do Caspian littoral states plan to address this shared environmental challenge, correspondents of «24KZ» report.
Images of the Caspian Sea's rising waters have attracted record numbers of views across Kazakhstan’s internet space. For Aktau, it has become the biggest story of the season. Yet the development is significant not only for residents and visitors of the Mangystau region. The rapid shallowing of the sea has been a source of concern throughout Central Asia. Scientists, however, caution against drawing optimistic conclusions too quickly.
Orynbasar Togzhanov, Environmental Expert and Veteran of the Ecology Sector:
- It is still too early to say that the sea is returning to its former boundaries. The shrinking of the Caspian is a process of enormous scale. Years of continuous observation will be required before we can speak about a genuine rise or even stabilization of the water level. It is important to understand that the Caspian Sea naturally fluctuates. Depending on the season and precipitation levels, its water level can rise or fall by several centimeters.
The Caspian Sea is shrinking rapidly. Over the past 150 years, its surface area has decreased from 450,000 to 357,000 square kilometers. Of the 130 rivers flowing into the sea, the greatest concern is the Volga River, which supplies approximately 90% of its water. Today, the river's flow is regulated by a cascade of 13 hydroelectric power stations. At the same time, evaporation is increasing due to global warming, adding to the anthropogenic pressures on the ecosystem.
Experts believe there are potential solutions to the environmental crisis.
Orynbasar Togzhanov, Environmental Expert and Veteran of the Ecology Sector:
- There is a large-scale project whose concept first emerged in 1921. Later, in 1952, detailed plans were developed for constructing a navigable canal through the Kuma-Manych Depression, linking the Azov and Caspian seas. Undoubtedly, this would require enormous financial resources. However, if such a canal were built, the Caspian Sea would be connected to the World Ocean and receive a significant inflow of water.
For now, scientists stress that it is premature to speak of a sustained rise in the Caspian Sea's level. What residents of Aktau are witnessing today is considered a natural seasonal fluctuation.
Serik Akhmetov, Chairman of the Board, Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea:
- We are observing a seasonal increase in the Caspian Sea level. According to leading Russian scientists, despite the current rise, the sea level remains approximately 10 centimeters lower than it was in May of last year.
Nurlan Sarsenbayev, Deputy Director of the Regional Branch of Kazhydromet:
- In fact, the sea level has remained close to last year's mark, at around minus 29.5 meters. The situation is monitored through seven observation stations across the region. Hydrological observations are conducted continuously every six hours, four times a day. In the near future, the rate of decline may slow, but the overall process has not yet stopped.
Mangystau’s climate is also changing rapidly. In previous years, June typically brought intense heat to the region. This year, however, temperatures have remained unusually cool. Abundant rainfall has transformed the normally arid landscape into a remarkably green environment.
One of nature’s most surprising developments has been the appearance of sea snails far from the shoreline. Previously found only along the coast, they can now be spotted even in urban flowerbeds.
Authors: Raikhan Tazhibayeva, Talgat Islamuly, Renat Dosaliyev, Salamat Bekbayev