UN Warns Powerful El Niño Could Put 50 Million People at Risk of Hunger

The world could face the strongest El Niño in 40 years, according to the United Nations, reports 24KZ. The climate phenomenon is expected to trigger unprecedented floods, droughts and heatwaves. Up to 50 million people could face food insecurity.

Up to 50 million people may experience severe hunger due to El Niño, according to scientists from the World Meteorological Organization, citing new data. The climate phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to peak in December 2026. It could trigger increasingly severe and widespread natural disasters, including droughts, floods and extreme heat.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization:

- Our forecasts indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could exceed average levels by 3.8 degrees Celsius between November 2026 and January 2027. Previous El Niño events associated with anomalies of 3 degrees had very serious global consequences.

Modern history has seen three particularly powerful El Niño events. 

The first lasted from 1982 to 1983. Floods and landslides caused by natural disasters killed up to 2,000 people, while infrastructure damage exceeded $13 billion.

The second occurred in 1997–1998. According to experts, the disasters claimed around 23,000 lives. The combined damage from weather-related events was estimated at $35–45 billion, while long-term losses to the global economy exceeded $5 trillion. Indonesia was among the hardest-hit countries. An unprecedented drought triggered massive forest fires, with resulting haze spreading across Southeast Asia. The United States experienced record rainfall and a series of tornadoes. Worldwide, ocean warming caused the loss of 16% of coral reefs.

The third El Niño occurred in 2015–2016, affecting more than 60 million people. Thousands died in disasters, while millions suffered from acute malnutrition. The UN and WHO required more than $3.6 billion for humanitarian assistance and emergency response in affected regions.

Stephane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General:

- According to the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño will continue to strengthen this year, reaching its forecast peak in December. The phenomenon is expected to bring above-average temperatures to much of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in various regions.

East and Southern Africa, Central America and the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Flooding and heavy rainfall could hit Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya as early as November. These countries urgently need funding to prepare for extreme flooding. Kenya has been suffering from prolonged drought for the past two years. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, farmers lose up to $150 million annually due to crop failures.

Josephine Kihu, Farmer:

- We have invested a great deal of money in our business, but we cannot make any profit. We used to rely on rainfall and did not need to water the trees. Now we have to spend additional resources on irrigation, yet our annual crop losses are not decreasing.

The UN stressed that a global threat of this scale requires a fully coordinated response from the international community. The next two weeks will be critical to preventing a worsening humanitarian crisis linked to the climate phenomenon, the organization said.

Tom Fletcher, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator:

- This is a serious challenge. El Niño has destructive power. It will sweep across Latin America, East and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific, bringing extreme heat, droughts and floods. This will have far-reaching humanitarian consequences. Fifty million people could face hunger.

According to the African Development Bank, the phenomenon could cost countries in the region between $10 billion and $20 billion, reducing their GDP by 1–2%.

The UN has called on the international community to take urgent action. So far, the organization has allocated $50 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 of the most vulnerable countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. The funds will be used to purchase drought-resistant seeds, build river embankments and establish early warning systems for local populations.

Author: Assel Abdykalyкова